In a conversation this morning with some colleagues about the future of clinical research, I had an insight about how to make sense of the rapid changes in health IT, especially in the research realm.
The IT revolution dramatically accelerated the field of systems biology by making solutions to incredibly hard problems possible - still not easy, but possible. The decoding of the human genome is an example. I am not an insider in that realm, but I have been in bar conversations where people who are insiders told me that about 30% of the decoding happened in the first eight years, and the remaining 70% in the following couple years, thanks to the power law curve created by the interaction of Moore's Law with rapid advances in the related areas of storage and retrieval technology and parallel processing. (Remember this is from bar conversations, so correct me if I'm wrong.)
Not much was happening in clinical research informatics at that time. We got better at electronic data capture, and learned a lot more about how much effort the protection of patient confidentiality really requires. No revolution occurred equivalent to the genomics world.
The recent discovery of possible inks between Vioxx and heart attacks by Kaiser-Permanente may have been the turning point. What they did wasn't rocket science, it was a matter of having a standard EMR for a large population and enough computational power to mine a huge data set. I don't know if they had the standard EMR in K-P fifteen years ago, but they certainly didn't have the MIPS-per-dollar ratio we have now. So again not being an insider in their world, I would speculate that the Vioxx affair was paradigmatic of the future of clinical research, or at least one major facet of that future.
The decoding of the human genome led to the gradual realization that genomics alone doesn't do it, we need a better understanding of proteomics and metabolomics to solve the mysteries behind cancer and the other complex ailments that beset us. The birth of genomics is the evolutionary equivalent of the first creature that grew legs and waddled out of sight of the ocean. An amazing first step, but only the beginning of a much exploration.
The Vioxx affair may be the same kind of moment in the realm of clinical research. We've realized we can get oxygen out of the air, and don't have to stay in the water. We are now on shore and looking inland. What awaits us? No one can say for sure, but there can be no doubt that information technology is the evolutionary engine, the prime driving force at this point in history. Our real discoveries in this realm, as in basic science, have just begun.
Isaac Asimov pointed out that a sufficiently advanced technology will be indistinguishable from magic. I can safely predict that one day soon, a family physician will be doing magical things in a clinic near you.